ABSTRACT
Objective: To analyze the course of disease and epidemiological parameters of COVID-19 and provide evidence for making prevention and control strategies. Methods: To display the distribution of course of disease of the infectors who had close contacts with COVID-19 cases from January 1 to March 15, 2020 in Guangdong Provincial, the models of Lognormal, Weibull and gamma distribution were applied. A descriptive analysis was conducted on the basic characteristics and epidemiological parameters of course of disease. Results: In total, 515 of 11 580 close contacts were infected, with an attack rate about 4.4%, including 449 confirmed cases and 66 asymptomatic cases. Lognormal distribution was fitting best for latent period, incubation period, pre-symptomatic infection period of confirmed cases and infection period of asymptomatic cases; Gamma distribution was fitting best for infectious period and clinical symptom period of confirmed cases; Weibull distribution was fitting best for latent period of asymptomatic cases. The latent period, incubation period, pre-symptomatic infection period, infectious period and clinical symptoms period of confirmed cases were 4.50 (95%CI:3.86-5.13) days, 5.12 (95%CI:4.63-5.62) days, 0.87 (95%CI:0.67-1.07) days, 11.89 (95%CI:9.81-13.98) days and 22.00 (95%CI:21.24-22.77) days, respectively. The latent period and infectious period of asymptomatic cases were 8.88 (95%CI:6.89-10.86) days and 6.18 (95%CI:1.89-10.47) days, respectively. Conclusion: The estimated course of COVID-19 and related epidemiological parameters are similar to the existing data.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Contact Tracing , Cohort Studies , Humans , Incidence , Prospective StudiesABSTRACT
New methods of spatial allocation of medical resources should be investigated under the background of healthy cities and COVID-19 pandemic. Hangzhou was taken as an example and the improved Gaussian two-step floating catchment area method (2SFCA) was used to study the space allocation of public medical resources from the perspective of "supply to demand". And the theory of planned behavior (TPB) was used as represent of personal choice preference to study the influence of personal choice behavior on the medical resources from the perspective of "demand to supply". Results show that Hangzhou's medical resources have obvious central agglomeration, and the total amount of medical resources available to residents is related to whether the hospital's medical resources are run on and the extent. Meanwhile, it is proved that residents' personal choice has an impact on the allocation of urban medical resources. The analysis results can be the optimization to the medical facility distribution scheme of the current "Hangzhou Urban Medical and Health Facility Layout Planning (2016-2035)", which has analyzed the rationality and also improved the scientificity of the distribution scheme. © 2021, Zhejiang University Press. All right reserved.